Standing in the depths of the Grand Canyon as the sun set, I faced a problem that would later define how I think about leadership decisions. The trail ahead had vanished into a maze of reddish-brown rock. Every direction looked identical. The familiar markers were gone, swallowed by shadows and sameness.
I couldn’t see the path, but I had to move. Darkness was coming and we weren’t somewhere we could camp.
This moment captures the reality many leaders face daily. You’re responsible for direction when the way forward isn’t clear. Your team is looking to you for answers you don’t have. The familiar markers that guided past decisions no longer apply.
The temptation is to stand still, gather more information, wait for clarity. But in business, as in canyons at sunset, standing still isn’t an option.
The Paralysis of Perfect Information
Most leaders have been trained to make decisions with complete data. Analyse the market, study the competition, model the scenarios, present the business case. This works brilliantly when the environment is stable and the variables are known.
But what happens when you’re operating in uncharted territory? When the market is shifting faster than your analysis can keep up? When your competitors are making moves that don’t fit the traditional playbook?
Managers get analysis paralysis. They freeze because they can’t see the complete picture. Teams stall while waiting for perfect clarity that never comes.
In the canyon that evening, I realised something crucial: you don’t need to see the entire path. Action precedes clarity.
The Three-Choice Navigation System
That night, I developed a simple system that has since guided thousands of business decisions. Take a small step forward and assess what you learn. Every action reveals one of three outcomes:
Right path – The ground is solid, the direction feels correct, obstacles are manageable. Continue with confidence.
Nearly right path – You’re close but not quite there. The terrain is challenging but navigable. Course correct and keep moving.
Wrong path – The ground is unstable, obstacles are insurmountable, or you’re clearly heading away from your destination. Stop, backtrack, choose a different direction.
The key isn’t avoiding wrong paths – it’s identifying them quickly and cheaply.
In business, this translates to finding the smallest action that will reveal which track you’re on. Not the biggest move that will solve everything, but the smallest move that will teach you something valuable.
We teach the game of 1%. Your level of confidence to make a small decision is greater than a large one – this figures. Therefore make lots of smaller decisions more quickly until you can take a bigger one.
The goal is learning, not winning. You want information that helps you navigate, not results that define your success.
Why Leaders Resist Small Steps
Most leaders resist this approach because it feels inefficient. They want to make big, decisive moves that demonstrate leadership. Small steps feel tentative, uncertain, weak.
But big moves in uncertain terrain are dangerous. They consume resources, create momentum that’s hard to reverse, and often reveal problems too late to fix them cheaply.
Small steps preserve options. They let you fail fast and cheap rather than slow and expensive. They build confidence through learning rather than hoping.
The Navigation Questions
When you can’t see the path ahead, ask yourself:
What’s the smallest step I can take that will teach me something most valuable?
Not the step that will solve the problem, but the step that will reveal whether you’re heading in the right direction.
What would I need to see to know I’m on the right track?
Define your success indicators before you move. What evidence would convince you to continue? What would make you course correct? What would make you stop?
How quickly can I recognise if this isn’t working?
Set clear checkpoints. After one week, one month, one quarter – what will you measure? How will you know if you need to adjust?
What’s the cost of being wrong?
If this step doesn’t work out, what have you lost? Time, money, credibility, opportunity? Make sure the cost of learning is acceptable.
How HR can unlock The Confidence Paradox
Here’s what surprised me most: taking small, uncertain steps actually builds more confidence than waiting for certainty. It also allows you to give your team direction.
Each step teaches you something about the terrain. Each course correction improves your navigation skills. Each small success builds momentum for bigger moves.
Leaders who wait for perfect information never develop the muscle memory of decision-making under uncertainty. When they finally do move, they’re unpracticed and unsteady.
Leaders who take small steps regularly become comfortable with ambiguity. They develop intuition about which paths to explore and which to abandon quickly.
The path will reveal itself as you walk it. But only if you start walking.
When you are ready to find out more, here are a few ways you can connect with me
- Tired of leadership advice that doesn’t work in the real world? → Get practical insights that actually work
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